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The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are likely to trigger more intense heatwaves and other extreme weather events across the world in the coming months.
According to the WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update released on Friday, strong El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly between July and September. The forecast is based on multi-model climate predictions from WMO partners, which indicate significant warming of sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitored regions.
WMO scientist Alvaro Silva said El Niño would provide an additional boost to already rising global temperatures. “During El Niño years, global temperatures normally reach record levels,” Silva said, warning that the world is likely to experience even more severe weather as the phenomenon strengthens.
The agency also expressed concern over worsening conditions on land. WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis noted that although July has just begun, many parts of Europe had already experienced record-breaking temperatures in June. She cited Germany, where temperatures reached a new national record of 41.7 degrees Celsius during the previous weekend.
The WMO also highlighted a prolonged and dangerous heatwave affecting the central and eastern United States, with the US National Weather Service warning that extreme heat would continue through the Independence Day holiday weekend.
Beyond heatwaves, the organisation forecasts drier-than-average conditions across Central America, the Caribbean and parts of North and South America.
Indonesia and several Southeast Asian countries are also expected to experience below-average rainfall during the monsoon season, increasing concerns over drought.
In contrast, East Africa is likely to receive above-average rainfall between September and December, raising the risk of flooding.
The WMO said this could be further intensified by the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, another major climate pattern that influences global weather.
In response to the growing threat, the WMO said it has launched an unprecedented global mobilisation with national meteorological agencies and regional climate centres to help governments prepare for extreme weather and minimise damage.
Silva stressed that there remains a limited window for early action. “For regions expecting drought, ensuring adequate water supplies for agriculture, electricity generation and other essential sectors should be a priority,” he said.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the Earth’s most influential climate systems.
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years, lasts between nine and twelve months, usually begins between March and June, peaks from November to February, and has its greatest impact on global temperatures in the following year.
The WMO noted that the effects of El Niño vary depending on its strength, duration, the time of year and its interaction with other climate patterns such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. The agency also cautioned that extreme weather events can still occur even during ENSO-neutral conditions.
The WMO classifies El Niño and La Niña events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Silva emphasised that stronger El Niño events significantly increase the likelihood of extreme weather and climate disasters worldwide, adding to the long-term impacts of human-induced climate change.