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China’s navy has launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, a rare move that has raised fresh concerns across the United States and the Asia-Pacific over Beijing’s expanding military capabilities.
The test, conducted on Monday, marks only the second time in recent years that China has fired a ballistic missile into international waters.
Military analysts say it underscores the country’s growing ability to strengthen its nuclear deterrence.
Beijing confirmed the launch only after it took place. In a brief statement, state-run Xinhua News Agency described it as part of routine annual military training, saying the missile carried a dummy warhead and was not aimed at any country. China also maintained that the launch complied with international law.
However, several governments said they were given only short notice ahead of the test, fuelling concerns about transparency and regional stability.
Analysts warned the move could further intensify military competition in an already tense region.
Defence experts believe the missile was likely a JL-2 or the more advanced JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile.
China’s state-run Global Times suggested it was “most likely” a JL-3, which has a range exceeding 10,000 kilometres, significantly extending Beijing’s strike capability.
New Zealand said the missile landed within treaty waters in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, arguing that the test ran counter to the spirit of the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which bans nuclear weapons in the region.
Although China is a signatory to the treaty’s protocols, it maintains the launch did not violate its commitments.
Australia, Japan and several Pacific nations also expressed concern. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the test as “provocative” and destabilising, citing insufficient advance notice.
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters called the launch “unwelcome and concerning,” while Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale said missile tests were not appropriate in the Pacific despite China being an important partner.
China, however, urged countries not to “overinterpret” the launch.
Experts say such reactions are understandable, given Beijing’s limited disclosure about its military activities.
Drew Thompson of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies noted that China’s rapid military expansion has not been matched by greater transparency, creating uncertainty about its strategic intentions.
The test comes amid China’s broader military modernisation drive under President Xi Jinping.
The country now fields the world’s largest navy by fleet size and continues to expand its nuclear arsenal, though it remains smaller than those of the United States and Russia.
China’s official defence budget is projected to reach about $270 billion in 2026, following steady annual increases.
Independent estimates, including from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, suggest actual spending may be significantly higher.
Regional security concerns remain closely tied to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by China.
Beijing has intensified military activities near Taiwan, while neighbouring countries are strengthening their own defences in response.
Japan plans to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP, moving away from its long-standing 1% cap, while the Philippines has expanded defence cooperation with the United States.
Analysts say the missile test could further strain already tense relations, particularly between China and Japan, as strategic rivalry deepens across the region.