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Brazil’s presidential campaign ends on Thursday (October 1), with the country’s political scene heating up in the final stretch before voting on Sunday.
The election will determine whether Latin America’s largest country follows the conservative political trend sweeping the region or maintains its own political course.
Thirteen candidates are contesting the first round. Opinion polls suggest leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could narrowly lead the first round, but is unlikely to secure the majority of valid votes needed to win outright.
A runoff is therefore expected on October 25, potentially pitting Lula against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Jair Bolsonaro, the former far-right president, was convicted last year over a plot to overturn his 2022 election defeat. The conviction angered conservatives around the world, including US President Donald Trump, who described the prosecution as a “witch hunt”.
Throughout the campaign, Lula has warned of foreign interference in the election, including new tariffs imposed by Washington. Relations between Brazil and the United States have been strained during Lula’s presidency as the Trump administration introduced a series of tariffs on Brazilian goods.
By contrast, the Bolsonaro family has sought close ties with Trump and made visits to the White House. The difference between the Bolsonaro family’s relationship with Washington and Lula’s fluctuating ties with Trump has become a prominent feature of the campaign.
Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said Lula considers maintaining independence from the United States important because of Brazil’s strong relationship with China, particularly in trade.
According to Barreto, the Bolsonaro family sees its relationship with Washington as a form of “insurance”, expecting the United States to stand by them if problems arise.
Lula’s early lead in the campaign has narrowed considerably. Most recent polls show Flavio Bolsonaro virtually level with the president in a potential runoff, with the difference falling within the surveys’ margins of error. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Tuesday showed Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6% in a hypothetical second round.
Although Lula’s government has recorded progress in reducing inequality and unemployment, he faces challenges in securing support for a fourth non-consecutive term. Rising living costs, mounting household debt and the growing influence of criminal gangs are among voters’ concerns.
The final outcome will depend on voters’ last-minute decisions and the results of the first round.
