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More than 50,000 people died from heat-related causes across Europe during the summer of 2026, with human-induced climate change responsible for nearly two-thirds of the estimated deaths, according to two studies published in the journal Nature Health.
Researchers estimated that extreme heat caused 50,391 deaths, including more than 32,600 attributable to human-induced climate change, highlighting the growing health toll of global warming.
The summer could prove the deadliest on record for heat-related mortality in more than half of Europe’s regions, said Clair Barnes, a researcher in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London and one of the study’s authors.
She warned that without rapid and coordinated action, the consequences of climate change would become increasingly severe.
From late May to late August, intense heatwaves swept across large parts of Europe. Summer temperatures in western Europe averaged around 2.9 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, while temperatures in some countries rose as much as 12 degrees above historical norms on certain days.
Southern and western Europe experienced the worst conditions, but northern countries were also affected, including the United Kingdom.
People aged 85 and above accounted for the largest share of heat-related deaths. However, the impact extended to younger populations, with at least 800 estimated deaths among people aged 20 to 44.
To assess the mortality toll, scientists analysed temperature data from 854 cities across 30 European countries and compared actual conditions with a hypothetical scenario without human-induced climate change.
Using models linking temperature variations with daily mortality between early June and late August, they estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme heat.
The estimated toll was the highest in the past 26 years, surpassing those of the major European heatwaves of 2022 and 2003, according to the research.
Raquel Nunes, an associate professor of health and the environment at the University of Warwick, said heat was often described as a “silent killer” because its effects were not always immediately visible.
The estimated deaths among people under 65 also demonstrated that extreme heat posed risks well beyond the elderly, she said.
The studies pointed to a growing role of human-induced warming in heat-related mortality. At the beginning of this century, fossil fuel-driven global warming was estimated to account for around 40 per cent of such deaths, compared with roughly two-thirds now.
The findings underscore the growing threat posed by rising temperatures as Europe faces increasingly dangerous summers.
Researchers warned that reducing dependence on fossil fuels and strengthening climate action would be critical to limiting future risks, as extreme heat events could become more frequent and severe.
