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HM Akhtar, New York: Early voting began on Saturday, 24 October, in New York, New Jersey and several other US states ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November, with Democrats seeking to regain control of Congress amid a closely contested race against Republicans.
National opinion polls released in October have consistently shown Democrats leading Republicans in the race for the House of Representatives, raising hopes of a political comeback. However, the battle for control of the Senate remains more difficult, with several competitive state-level contests likely to determine the outcome.
The elections will decide control of both chambers of Congress, which are currently held by Republicans. The party’s majority in the 435-member House is narrow, leaving it vulnerable to losing control if Democrats make gains in a relatively small number of competitive districts.
According to an Associated Press analysis, more than 13 million early and mail-in ballots had been submitted nationwide by around two weeks before election day, compared with approximately nine million at the same point in 2022. However, expanded access to early voting and changes in data collection methods have also contributed to the increase, making it difficult to draw conclusions about party performance from turnout figures alone.
The growing participation in early voting has become a major focus of the campaign. Democrats see the trend as an opportunity to mobilise their supporters, although higher early-voting numbers do not necessarily indicate that either party is ahead.
The House of Representatives is widely viewed as Democrats’ more realistic opportunity to regain power. Republicans currently hold only a slim majority, meaning results in a handful of closely contested districts could shift the balance.
The Senate presents a greater challenge. According to a Reuters analysis published on 23 October, Democrats need to gain four seats to secure control. They must defend competitive seats, including those in Michigan and New Hampshire, while also winning several seats currently held by Republicans.
This leaves Democrats facing two distinct challenges: securing enough victories in House races to regain a majority and making sufficient gains in the Senate to shift the balance of power.
National polling has strengthened Democratic hopes. Surveys conducted in October by organisations and media outlets including CNBC, Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, CNN/SSRS, The New York Times/Siena, Echelon Insights, Rasmussen Reports and Fox News have shown Democrats leading Republicans by approximately four to 12 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot.
However, a national lead does not guarantee control of the House, where the outcome depends on individual district contests, local political dynamics and voter turnout. Senate races are even more dependent on state-specific factors.
Economic concerns are playing a central role in the campaign, with inflation, everyday expenses, housing costs, healthcare and energy prices featuring prominently in voter discussions.
Nearly half of voters reportedly consider the cost of living the most important issue in the congressional elections. Dissatisfaction over inflation and household expenses could create difficulties for Republican candidates, while Democrats are seeking to capitalise on public frustration.
However, the political impact of economic concerns varies across states and districts. Candidates’ personal popularity, local issues and campaign strategies will also influence the results.
Early-voting figures have risen in several states compared with the same period before the 2022 midterm elections. An Associated Press analysis reported a 74 per cent increase in Texas and more than a doubling in Kansas. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio have also recorded notable increases.
Several of these states have competitive Senate races, making voter participation particularly important.
The trend has not been uniform nationwide. Although early-voting numbers remain substantial in Michigan and Georgia, they are broadly comparable with levels recorded at a similar stage in 2022. Iowa, meanwhile, has recorded fewer early votes than at the same point before the previous midterm elections.
In New York City, early voting is scheduled to run from 24 October to 1 November, according to the city’s Board of Elections. New Jersey has also arranged early voting over the same period, ahead of the 3 November election.
The combination of increased early voting, voter concerns over living costs and the Republicans’ narrow House majority has created an opening for Democrats. Nevertheless, the Senate’s electoral map and the highly competitive nature of several state races remain significant obstacles.
The outcome will also have implications for President Donald Trump’s administration. A Democratic takeover of either chamber could complicate the president’s legislative agenda, increase congressional scrutiny of his administration and reshape the political landscape ahead of the next presidential election.
Despite the favourable polling, the final result remains uncertain. Early-voting figures and national opinion surveys offer useful indications of voter sentiment but cannot establish which party will win.
The balance of power in Congress will ultimately depend on turnout on election day, results in closely contested districts and states, and the final count of votes on 3 November.