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Economists have warned that a potential “super” El Niño weather event this year could drive global food prices higher through 2028, compounding inflationary pressures already intensified by the Iran conflict.
With the war pushing global food prices to their highest level in three years, analysts say supply chains are facing a double blow from geopolitical tensions and extreme weather linked to climate change.
Scientists say the 2026-27 El Niño has an unusually high chance of becoming a “very strong” event. The phenomenon, caused by unusually warm waters spreading across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to increase the risk of heatwaves, floods and severe storms worldwide.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last month there is a 63% chance that Pacific sea surface temperatures will rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal later this year, raising the likelihood of an exceptionally powerful El Niño.
Experts warn that the weather pattern could disrupt crop production and food supplies at a time when households are already struggling with high living costs. They also cautioned that another surge in food inflation could complicate efforts by central banks to reduce interest rates.
Analysts at Italy’s UniCredit said El Niño could bring “climateflation” back into focus by amplifying the economic effects of global warming and increasing pressure on food prices.
El Niño has historically caused major agricultural disruptions. One of the strongest events on record in the late 19th century triggered devastating droughts across parts of Asia, Africa and South America, contributing to widespread famine and millions of deaths, including more than six million people in India between 1876 and 1878.
