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The Met Office said the combination of a powerful El Niño and human-caused climate change could make 2027 the hottest year on record, with a strong possibility of setting a new global temperature record.
The effects are already beginning to emerge, with signs of below-average rainfall in India and reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2026. The UK could also face a wetter and stormier autumn.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said the forecast signals for El Niño were unusually strong.
“We have never seen such a strong El Niño signal in our forecasts,” he said, describing the potential event as unprecedented.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. It develops when trade winds across the Pacific weaken or change direction, allowing unusually warm water to move eastward. The resulting transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere can raise global temperatures and alter rainfall patterns.
Scientists generally classify an El Niño when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific are at least 0.5°C above average. Current data, however, show temperatures more than 2°C above normal.
The Met Office forecasts that the anomaly could exceed 3°C when El Niño reaches its peak later this year. If so, it would be an unprecedented event since records began in 1950 and potentially the strongest since the 19th century.
Exceptional heat in deeper parts of the Pacific Ocean is also adding fuel to the phenomenon, with temperatures in some areas more than 8°C above normal at depths of around 100 metres.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said the event would continue developing over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of a record-strength El Niño.
Other climate agencies have suggested the event could be even more extreme, with some scenarios pointing to temperatures as much as 4°C above average. Hausfather said such an event could potentially rank among the strongest El Niños in 500 to 1,000 years.
