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The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to become “very strong” in the coming months and is highly likely to persist through February, potentially bringing major disruptions to global rainfall and temperature patterns, the United Nations’ weather agency said Thursday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño is now firmly established and is forecast to intensify, increasing the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in different parts of the world.
The phenomenon develops when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. It can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific, affecting rainfall, temperatures and storm activity across multiple continents.
The WMO warned that the expected strengthening of El Niño could produce significant regional variations in weather conditions. Some areas may experience unusually heavy rainfall and flooding, while others could face prolonged dry conditions and increased heat.
El Niño can also affect agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems and economies, particularly in regions that are highly dependent on predictable seasonal rainfall.
The agency said the impacts will vary from one region to another and will depend on the strength and duration of the event as well as other climate factors.
Scientists closely monitor El Niño because strong events can contribute to extreme weather and influence global average temperatures. The phenomenon has also been associated with disruptions to food production, water availability and public health in vulnerable regions.
The WMO’s warning comes as countries worldwide continue to face increasingly severe weather extremes linked to a warming climate. While El Niño is a natural climate pattern, its effects can be amplified by long-term global warming, increasing the likelihood of record-breaking heat in some regions.
Governments and communities are being urged to strengthen preparedness for potential weather-related hazards, particularly flooding, drought and extreme heat, as the El Niño event develops over the coming months.