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The impending 2026-2027 El Niño cycle could be one of the strongest on record, threatening the health, education, safety and development of more than 347 million children worldwide, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
The climate phenomenon, expected to bring unusually wet and dry conditions to different parts of the world, could trigger extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and heatwaves, worsening existing humanitarian crises and disrupting essential services.
“For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said, stressing the importance of taking preventive action before the worst impacts emerge.
Nearly half of the world’s children, or around 1.1 billion, are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards, including drought, extreme heat and floods. The impending El Niño cycle could affect children and communities in nearly 100 countries and territories between October and December 2026.
Rohini Sampoornam Swaminathan, UNICEF’s statistics and monitoring manager, told Inter Press Service (IPS) that children are particularly vulnerable because of their developmental stage and dependence on caregivers and essential services.
These factors limit their ability to withstand climate shocks, especially when basic services are disrupted by extreme weather, she said.
“Communities may not have fully recovered from one shock before another one strikes, causing the impacts to compound over time,” Swaminathan added.
Asia-Pacific Faces Greatest Risk
The Asia-Pacific region is projected to face the heaviest toll, with around 190 million children estimated to be at risk. East and Southern Africa could see another 41 million children exposed to climate shocks, alongside 41 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.
An estimated 22 million children are vulnerable in Europe and Central Asia, while 20 million each could be affected in the Middle East and North Africa and in West and Central Africa.
The effects of El Niño are expected to vary considerably by region and could intensify existing humanitarian emergencies. Climate shocks that communities can manage in some areas may develop into severe humanitarian crises in places already struggling with poverty, conflict or inadequate services, Swaminathan said.
Countries including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and the Philippines are forecast to face unusually dry conditions, threatening agricultural production and increasing water scarcity. These pressures could worsen acute malnutrition and other adverse health outcomes among children.
By contrast, parts of the Greater Horn of Africa could experience unusually heavy rainfall. Somalia faces particular risks from river and flash flooding, which could displace communities and increase the spread of waterborne diseases.
Climate Shocks Threaten Children’s Safety
The scale of climate-related displacement is already substantial. Weather-related disasters displaced more than 20,000 children a day between 2016 and 2023, according to the figures cited by UNICEF.
Swaminathan warned that further flooding could force more families from their homes into overcrowded temporary shelters, increasing risks to children’s safety and protection.
Children living in prolonged conflict and humanitarian emergencies, including in Chad and Afghanistan, face particularly severe threats. Many are already experiencing extreme hunger, displacement and limited access to essential services, leaving them with little protection when additional climate shocks strike.
Education is another major concern. Severe droughts and floods could lead to school closures, lower attendance and rising dropout rates. Extreme weather disrupted the education of an estimated 171 million students worldwide in 2025 alone.
School disruptions can expose children to greater risks of violence, exploitation and child marriage, Swaminathan warned. Girls are particularly vulnerable, as school closures can increase their caregiving responsibilities at home and restrict their access to healthcare, nutrition and other essential services.
“When girls leave school, they are often less likely than boys to return,” she said.
Act Before the Crisis Peaks
UNICEF estimates that every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to US$15 in recovery costs. Despite the potential benefits, less than 1 per cent of humanitarian funding is allocated to anticipatory action, even when forecasts provide months of warning.
The agency is urging governments, donors and humanitarian partners to invest in preventive measures before the worst impacts occur. Priorities include strengthening climate resilience, protecting essential services and ensuring humanitarian access to vulnerable communities.
Swaminathan also stressed the need to include children with disabilities in disaster preparedness plans, noting that they already face significant barriers to education, healthcare and nutrition.
Inclusive planning, she said, is essential to address structural inequalities and ensure that vulnerable children are not overlooked.
“Despite efforts to plan for disasters, most resources are mobilised only after the damage occurs, and the focus is often on the immediate response phase of a crisis,” Swaminathan said.
“With forecasts providing months of warning, UNICEF is urging governments, donors, and partners to act before needs escalate by investing early and before impacts peak.”
She added that building resilience requires more than infrastructure and early warning systems. It also means strengthening the services and institutions children depend on and addressing the inequalities that leave some communities far more exposed to climate shocks. Source: IPS News