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Bangladesh should not rush into joining the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement but should first set its own conditions and proceed gradually through bilateral engagements, security and foreign policy analysts said at a webinar.
They said Bangladesh’s possible participation in the defence arrangement involving Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan could bring both significant diplomatic and defence opportunities and serious geopolitical risks. A careful risk assessment and broad national consensus would therefore be essential before taking any decision.
The speakers also pointed out that Bangladesh has not yet received any formal invitation to join the agreement.
They made the observations at a recent webinar organised by the Bangladesh Institute of Development and Security Studies (BIDS). Researcher Mahbub Bhuiyan moderated the event, while BIDS Executive Director Dr Mohammad Imran Hossain Ansary delivered the welcome address.
Major General (retd) Fazle Elahi Akbar, defence industry expert Sabina Ahmed and Kent State University Professor Dr Harun-or-Rashid took part in the panel discussion. Participants joined the webinar from Dhaka, Washington, New York, Istanbul and other parts of the world and took part in a question-and-answer session.
In his welcome remarks, Dr Imran Hossain Ansary said the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan could be an important indication of a shift in the global order from unipolarity towards multipolarity.
He said Bangladesh’s foreign minister and state minister for foreign affairs had already expressed positive views about the country’s possible engagement with the initiative. He also referred to the foreign minister’s statement in Parliament that Bangladesh had “buried the coffin of a submissive foreign policy”.
Dr Ansary said the issue was important for Bangladesh for three reasons.
First, it could create opportunities to strengthen the country’s economic and defence capabilities, particularly amid what he described as extremist Hindu nationalism in the west and separatist extremism in the Arakan region to the east.
Second, Bangladesh could face risks from India and Myanmar, which, he said, had already become apparent from India’s cautious reaction to the agreement.
Third, it remains unclear whether Bangladesh would seek full membership, a defence-industrial partnership or simply diplomatic solidarity with the countries involved.
Major General (retd) Fazle Elahi Akbar said much of the public interest in the agreement stemmed from a perception that Bangladesh’s sovereignty and independence had been increasingly constrained by the behaviour of a neighbouring country.
He noted that Bangladesh was the world’s only Muslim-majority country without a Muslim-majority neighbour, describing the geographical reality as an important factor in the country’s security planning.
The recent Iran-Israel-US conflict had also encouraged Gulf countries to develop stronger indigenous defence capabilities, he said.
According to Akbar, Bangladesh could benefit from joining the arrangement through joint defence production, intelligence sharing and joint training, particularly in improving interoperability and securing weapons supply chains.
However, he cautioned against assuming that the initiative would necessarily prove durable, noting the history of divisions within the Muslim world that had prevented similar initiatives from becoming effective in the past.
“There is no basis to be certain about the sustainability of the agreement at this stage,” he said, urging caution before making a decision.
Dr Harun-or-Rashid said the opportunities and challenges associated with the Mecca agreement were equally important and that neither should be considered greater than the other.
He said the agreement had essentially emerged as an attempt to address security problems centred on the Middle East, rather than South Asia. If Bangladesh joined, it could end up taking those geopolitical complications onto its own shoulders.
He identified India and the United States as two key actors whose interests would have to be considered.
Bangladesh’s participation could prompt India to reassess its border security calculations, while Washington would have to consider its interests in the Bay of Bengal as well as the broader context of Pakistan-China relations, he said.
He suggested that Bangladesh could consider temporarily keeping the issue on hold rather than accepting or rejecting the agreement hastily, citing Egypt as an example of a country that had adopted a cautious approach.
Defence industry expert Sabina Ahmed stressed that Bangladesh had not received any formal invitation to join the Mecca defence agreement.
She said Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman had himself confirmed the matter in Parliament. The invitation from Saudi Arabia, she noted, was for Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s bilateral visit, not for Bangladesh to join the defence agreement.
Sabina also pointed out that the full structure of the agreement had not yet been made public. Apart from the joint declaration issued on August 7, there was little publicly available information about its specific mechanisms, geographical scope or obligations to respond to a security threat.
Drawing a comparison with NATO, she said even the founding members of the alliance had initially negotiated various conditions, which were subsequently adjusted according to changing circumstances.
“Bangladesh can also determine its own conditions at this stage,” she said.
She argued that many potential benefits of the agreement, including joint defence production, intelligence sharing and training, could also be achieved through bilateral arrangements.
Bangladesh should therefore prioritise bilateral negotiations with Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan before considering formal participation in the multilateral defence arrangement, she said.
During the question-and-answer session, the panellists discussed the possible implications of Bangladesh joining the agreement for its relations with China.
Dr Harun-or-Rashid and Sabina Ahmed said the possibility of relations with China deteriorating appeared limited, particularly given China’s close strategic relationship with Pakistan. However, Beijing could have some concerns if Bangladesh increasingly turned to Türkiye for defence procurement.
Major General Akbar said China could instead welcome the initiative because it broadly aligned with Beijing’s emphasis on initiatives centred on the Global South.
Responding to a question about possible tensions between the agreement and US interests in the Indo-Pacific, General Akbar said US President Donald Trump had initially welcomed the arrangement, largely because of strategic considerations linked to energy supply chains and electoral politics.
However, he said the agreement could potentially come into conflict with the US Indo-Pacific strategy if its scope expanded significantly in the future.
On concerns about possible Indian military aggression, Major General Akbar dismissed the prospect as unfounded.
He said various forms of pressure along the border would continue even if Bangladesh decided not to join the agreement. The fundamental issue, therefore, was not membership of the Mecca agreement but the lack of national unity.
Without national unity, he said, it would be difficult for Bangladesh to withstand external pressure regardless of its international defence partnerships.
Discussing the situation along the Myanmar border, General Akbar said the gap between Bangladesh’s and Myanmar’s military capabilities had narrowed over the past three decades, particularly in terms of air power.
He criticised India’s limited role in resolving the Rohingya crisis and said China had failed to fulfil some of its commitments.
He suggested that the Rohingya repatriation issue could potentially be linked to China’s access to the Bay of Bengal under its Belt and Road Initiative.
Asked about the reliability of Saudi Arabia and other countries involved in the Mecca agreement, Sabina Ahmed referred to the long-standing relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
Despite its close ties with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia had maintained strong relations with India, she noted, arguing that the two relationships were not necessarily contradictory.
However, she stressed that Bangladesh should first develop its own bilateral agreements and deepen discussions with Saudi Arabia before deciding whether to join the broader defence arrangement.
Responding to a question about India’s security concerns in its northeastern states, General Akbar clarified that his earlier reference to the issue was economic rather than military.
He said India’s real concern could be that if Bangladesh achieved rapid economic development through good governance, the northeastern Indian states might increasingly look towards Dhaka rather than New Delhi for economic opportunities and connectivity.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the panellists agreed that whatever decision Bangladesh ultimately takes on the Mecca agreement must be guided by national interests, long-term capacity-building and strategic autonomy.
They stressed that Bangladesh should avoid a hurried decision and instead conduct a thorough risk assessment before determining the nature and extent of its engagement.
The Bangladesh Institute of Development and Security Studies (BIDS) is a US-based research organisation.