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Arab Muslim voters could play a decisive role in determining whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, as Arab political leaders urge their community to turn out in large numbers in the October 27 election.
Arab citizens make up around 21% of Israel’s population. A higher turnout among this historically Palestinian minority, which holds Israeli citizenship, could influence the political balance in the 120-seat Knesset and potentially benefit the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, and Ahmad Tibi, a leader of the Joint List, believe Arab voters could play a crucial role in shaping the next government.
According to election polls, Eisenkot’s bloc could win 52 seats, while Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance is projected to secure 50. Abbas’s party is expected to win five seats, while the Joint List could take eight.
Although Eisenkot has shown reluctance to form a government directly with Arab parties, Abbas believes political realities after the vote could open the door to cooperation.
Growing opposition to the hardline positions of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also contributed to expectations of higher Arab voter participation.
The Stat-Net Research Institute estimates that Arab voter turnout could reach 63% this time, up from 56% in 2022.
The October 27 election will be Israel’s first since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack and is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership.
Source: Reuters