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The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be announced at a glittering ceremony in London on Monday, marking the first time the prestigious football award ceremony has been held in Britain. Barcelona’s Spanish winger Lamine Yamal, France captain Kylian Mbappé and England striker Harry Kane are among the leading contenders for the game’s top individual honour.
According to predictions by French data analytics and AI firm Avicia, Yamal is the leading contender for the 2025–26 award, with a 23 per cent chance of winning. Kane follows with 21 per cent, while Mbappé and Rodri are joint third with 19 per cent each.
Lionel Messi, who is seeking a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or, has an 18 per cent chance, according to the forecast. However, bookmakers reportedly favour Kane, giving him nearly a 70 per cent chance of winning.
Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone and former Italy star Marco Materazzi have praised Messi’s outstanding performances at the age of 38 and backed him for the award. England midfielder Jude Bellingham has thrown his support behind teammate Kane, while English winger Anthony Gordon and Real Madrid midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni have backed Yamal and Mbappé, respectively.
Mbappé leads the contenders in individual statistics. He finished as the top scorer in La Liga with 25 goals and the Champions League with 15, while also claiming the World Cup Golden Boot after scoring a record 12 goals in the tournament. Kane, meanwhile, scored an extraordinary 73 goals last season.
However, the lack of major titles with either club or country could count against Mbappé. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but could only help England finish third at the World Cup.
Yamal, by contrast, has the advantage of major trophies, having won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, despite injuries affecting his individual statistics. Recent history suggests that winning a major tournament often plays a decisive role in the Ballon d’Or race, potentially strengthening Yamal’s case.
At 19, the Barcelona prodigy could also become the youngest-ever Ballon d’Or winner, surpassing Brazilian legend Ronaldo, who won the award at the age of 21 in 1997.
