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Russia is suffering a monthly shortfall of around 6,000 troops in its war against Ukraine, as the number of soldiers leaving the battlefield continues to outpace recruitment, according to a Western official quoted by The Guardian.
The official said Russian forces are recruiting around 1,000 new troops a day, equivalent to roughly 30,000–31,000 recruits a month. However, the Russian military is losing an estimated 36,000 personnel each month across various fronts.
“That leaves a shortfall of around 6,000 troops every month,” the official told The Guardian.
The continued manpower deficit is reportedly causing growing concern within the Russian military and, according to the official, President Vladimir Putin himself.
The official claimed that mounting battlefield losses were contributing to Moscow’s decision to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centres. Since the beginning of July, Russia has launched more than 360 missiles at Ukraine, while seeking to exploit gaps in Kyiv’s defences against ballistic missiles.
The official said Moscow appeared intent on damaging Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the coming winter in an effort to weaken public morale.
“One reason for this strategy is that Putin has limited options for recruiting more troops to compensate for the heavy losses on the battlefield,” the official said.
Western officials believe another large-scale military mobilisation would carry significant political and economic risks for Russia.
Following Russia’s last major mobilisation in autumn 2022, nearly one million Russians, many of them highly skilled workers, reportedly left the country. Although some later returned, the number of returnees was less than half the number who had departed, according to the officials.
Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian oil-related facilities, contributing to pressure on Russia’s energy sector, while continuing to seek greater assistance from its allies in both offensive weapons and air-defence systems.
During his first overseas trip as prime minister, Andy Burnham visited Kyiv this week and pledged that the UK would work with Ukraine to produce long-range cruise missiles.
Burnham is also expected to make the case for stronger support to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks at the UN General Assembly in New York next month.
Russia has repeatedly threatened retaliatory strikes, including against British military targets inside and outside Ukraine.
Western officials acknowledged that the Russian threats are serious but said their assessment remains that Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on Putin’s orders, following years of tensions over issues including Crimea, the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements and Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO. The war continues.
