Shortlist of likely 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature candidates

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced in Stockholm on Thursday, with Chinese experimental writer Can Xue and Canadian poet Anne Carson among the leading contenders in this year’s speculation.
The Swedish Academy keeps its deliberations and shortlist secret, meaning there is no confirmed list of finalists. But betting markets and literary critics have repeatedly highlighted a group of internationally acclaimed writers as possible laureates.
Can Xue (China) — The experimental writer, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua, has been a perennial Nobel favourite. Her unconventional fiction has earned international attention, and she is currently among the leading names in betting markets.
Anne Carson (Canada) — The poet, essayist and classicist is known for blending poetry, prose, mythology and contemporary themes. Her best-known works include Autobiography of Red. She is also among the top contenders in current betting markets.
Gerald Murnane (Australia) — The Australian novelist and experimental writer has appeared regularly in Nobel predictions and is among the leading names in current betting markets.
Haruki Murakami (Japan) — One of the world’s most widely read contemporary novelists, Murakami remains a perennial Nobel contender. His major works include Norwegian Wood and Kafka on the Shore.
Cristina Rivera Garza (Mexico) — The Mexican writer and Pulitzer Prize winner is increasingly prominent in Nobel speculation. Her work has explored violence against women, memory and migration.
Jamaica Kincaid (Antigua and Barbuda/United States) — Kincaid is a major postcolonial Caribbean-American writer known for works including Annie John, Lucy and A Small Place. She is among the female writers frequently mentioned as a potential laureate.
Margaret Atwood (Canada) — The author of The Handmaid’s Tale and other internationally acclaimed works remains a longstanding Nobel contender and continues to feature prominently in prediction lists.
Thomas Pynchon (United States) — The famously reclusive American novelist, known for works including Gravity’s Rainbow, remains a regular name in Nobel speculation and is among the leading male contenders this year.
Amitav Ghosh (India) — The Indian writer is also among the prominent Asian names appearing in this year’s Nobel speculation. His work spans historical fiction, climate change and colonialism.
Mircea Cărtărescu (Romania) — The Romanian novelist and poet is another perennial contender whose name has appeared repeatedly in Nobel predictions.
Other names appearing in current prediction lists include Salman Rushdie, Enrique Vila-Matas, Michel Houellebecq, Alexis Wright, César Aira, Lídia Jorge and Lyudmila Ulitskaya.
The uncertainty remains considerable. Nobel predictions have often failed to identify the eventual winner, and the Swedish Academy’s secrecy means the final choice can come as a surprise. Last year’s prize went to Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai.