Australia had 2.22m Indigenous people before colonisation

Australia had an estimated 2.22 million Indigenous people before European colonisation in 1788, up to seven times higher than some earlier estimates, according to new research that also suggests the population plunged by 93 per cent within 73 years of European arrival.

The study estimated that about 2.06 million excess deaths occurred among Indigenous Australians between 1788 and 1861, averaging around 28,200 a year.

By 1861, the Indigenous population had fallen to just 7 per cent of its estimated pre-colonisation level, researchers said.

The findings challenge long-standing assumptions about Australia’s pre-colonial population and highlight the devastating demographic consequences of European settlement.

The research was conducted by scientists working with Indigenous partners, combining computer modelling with ethnographic observations, archaeological evidence, genetic reconstructions and assessments of the capacity of different environments to support human populations.

Professor Corey Bradshaw, a global ecology professor at Flinders University and chief investigator at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, contributed to the research.

“Understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion in 1788 is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation,” Bradshaw said.

Earlier estimates were heavily influenced by calculations made in the 1930s by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown, who put the Indigenous population before colonisation at about 250,000.

Historical estimates generally ranged from 250,000 to one million people. However, researchers said these figures likely underestimated the original population because disease, frontier violence and systemic oppression had already caused substantial losses before the earliest censuses.

Using modelling and genetic evidence, the researchers calculated a median pre-colonisation population of 2.22 million, equivalent to about 0.29 people per square kilometre across the continent.

Lead author Associate Professor Alan Williams, a partner investigator at the research centre representing EMM Consulting and an adjunct research fellow at James Cook University, said the findings highlighted the profound impact of colonisation.

He also pointed to the survival, resilience and recovery of Indigenous Australians over the past century.

Australia’s Indigenous population has grown since the 1950s but remains below the newly estimated pre-colonisation level.

According to the 2021 Australian census, the Indigenous population was about 37 per cent of the study’s estimated median population in 1788.

If current population growth trends continue, the researchers project that the Indigenous population may not return to its estimated pre-colonisation size until around 2047.

The findings add to efforts to reassess Australia’s colonial history and recognise the scale of population loss experienced by Indigenous communities following European settlement.