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Tensions between the United States and Iran have fuelled renewed discussions about the possibility of a Third World War. Meanwhile, the sudden cancellation of several scheduled campaign events by US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance has raised questions. There is also growing speculation about whether ordinary American citizens could be forced to join the military if a potential conflict escalates further. However, there has been no indication so far of any decision or plan to reintroduce mandatory military conscription in the United States.
The Economic Times recently published a report on the issue. According to the report, Trump cancelled campaign rallies scheduled for the weekend in Iowa and Kansas. At the same time, Vance’s press conference in Minnesota, titled ‘War on Fraud’, was also cancelled. Although the specific reasons for cancelling the events were not clear, reports of escalating tensions over the Iran conflict emerged around the same time.
The report said a prolonged conflict involving Iran could have significant implications for US security and military interests. US Senator Chris Murphy has also warned that further escalation could put American troops at risk.
## Could Ordinary Citizens Be Called Up for War?
If fears of a Third World War materialise, the question of recruiting ordinary citizens alongside volunteer military personnel could come to the forefront.
If an insufficient number of people enlist voluntarily, the government could consider introducing compulsory military service, known as conscription. The United States had such a system during the Vietnam War.
In 1969, the United States introduced a lottery-based draft system. At the time, men aged between 18 and 26 were selected for military service based on a lottery of their birth dates. Those whose birth dates were drawn earlier had a greater likelihood of being called up first.
However, there has been no announcement of plans to reintroduce the system. The US military has operated on an all-volunteer basis since 1973.
Most male US citizens and immigrants aged between 18 and 25 are required to register with the Selective Service System. However, registration does not mean an order to join the military. Rather, it is a mechanism for maintaining a list of potential recruits in case conscription is reintroduced in the future.
## How Likely Is the US to Send Ground Troops?
The report quoted military strategy analyst Christopher Lee, who said that during the Vietnam War, around 1.8 million American men were drafted over nearly nine years, representing approximately seven per cent of the country’s total population.
However, he believes the likelihood of ordinary American citizens being conscripted for a potential conflict with Iran is low, considering the nature of such a confrontation.
According to his analysis, naval and air operations in the Persian Gulf region could constitute the main elements of any conflict. He also questioned whether deploying ground troops to Iran would be necessary.
## Military Preparedness Also Under Discussion in the UK
The report also highlighted military preparedness in the United Kingdom.
According to The Times, three of Britain’s four nuclear-armed submarines are currently at sea simultaneously. The report described such an occurrence as highly unusual.
Meanwhile, the maximum age limit for men joining the British Army Reserve has been raised from 55 to 65.
Former British Army chief Lord Dannatt said that if a major war broke out, reserve forces could be deployed first. Regular reservists could then be recalled, while compulsory recruitment might be considered depending on the circumstances.
However, neither the United States nor the United Kingdom has announced any plans to introduce new mandatory military conscription for ordinary citizens.
As a result, discussions about the possibility of a Third World War and the potential deployment of ordinary citizens remain at the level of speculation and analysis.