Cyclone formation likely in Bay of Bengal within 48 hours

DHAKA: A well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a cyclone within the next 48 hours, according to the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team Limited. The organisation shared the forecast on its Facebook page on Saturday (October 24).

The weather system, currently located over the southeastern and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal, intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area on Saturday morning. It may continue to strengthen over the next three to four days, developing into a depression within six to 12 hours, a deep depression within 24 to 36 hours, and a cyclone within 48 hours, the organisation said.

Current conditions: Winds within a 100-kilometre radius of the system’s centre are currently averaging up to 35 kilometres per hour, with gusts reaching 45 kilometres per hour. The sea in the area is gradually becoming rough.

Warning signals and projected path

Although the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has not issued any warning signals for the country’s seaports, warning signals may be issued soon, the organisation said.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to avoid venturing into the deep sea, particularly beyond 150 kilometres from the coast, and to operate cautiously near coastal areas.

The system may move south-southeastward over the next 24 to 36 hours before gradually tracking mostly westward as it intensifies.

It may reach its peak intensity over the west-central and adjoining southwestern Bay of Bengal. While there is a possibility of it developing into a powerful cyclone, its potential maximum intensity remains uncertain.

The organisation said there was currently no risk of the system directly striking Bangladesh, although the forecast could change as it develops.

The system may make landfall around October 28 along the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh or adjoining southern Odisha as a powerful cyclone.

Rainfall forecast: Depending on its track, heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur in the Indian states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

The system may also trigger a rain spell in Bangladesh from October 27 or 28 under its peripheral influence. Significant rainfall is possible across many parts of the country between October 27 and November 1.

Barishal, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh and Dhaka divisions may receive comparatively heavier rainfall, while Chattogram and Sylhet divisions may experience less rainfall, the organisation said.