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Bangladesh is likely to experience flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins during July and August due to heavy rainfall in upstream catchment areas, according to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).
“Bangladesh remains vulnerable to flooding in July and August due to climatic reasons. During this period, heavy rainfall occurs in major river basins and upstream areas, triggering flood situations in the country,” said Sarder Udoy Raihan, Executive Engineer at the FFWC under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB).
He said flood conditions are likely to develop in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins during the two-month period.
Historical records show that Bangladesh’s worst floods have occurred during the peak monsoon season. The devastating 1988 flood submerged around 82,000 square kilometres, nearly 60 percent of the country’s land area, while the 1998 flood lasted for more than two months, claiming over 1,000 lives and affecting about 30 million people.
Experts say simultaneous flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins poses the greatest threat. In 2004, the two rivers peaked almost at the same time, inundating nearly 30,000 square kilometres in the country’s northeastern region.
More recently, the 2022 Meghna basin floods and the widespread floods of 2024 together affected more than 13 million people, highlighting the growing risks from heavy upstream rainfall.
Raihan said the FFWC is now capable of issuing flood forecasts for inland river basins 10 to 15 days in advance, while forecasts for coastal rivers can be provided up to three days ahead.
He said low-lying areas of the Brahmaputra basin are currently experiencing flooding, with river levels expected to stabilise within five to six days. The Meghna basin, however, is expected to remain stable over the next few days as no significant rainfall has occurred in its catchment areas.
He also warned that a low-pressure system may develop over the Bay of Bengal later this month, potentially triggering flash floods in low-lying coastal areas.
According to the FFWC’s latest flood forecast issued on Thursday, water levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system are expected to rise over the next four days. Between July 4 and July 7, the rivers may flow at warning levels in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura districts, causing inundation in adjacent low-lying areas.
The Ganges-Padma rivers are also expected to continue rising over the next five days but are likely to remain below danger level.
Meanwhile, the Surma-Kushiyara river system is expected to remain at warning levels in Sylhet and Sunamganj over the next 72 hours, with low-lying areas likely to stay flooded in some places.
The FFWC said water levels at several monitoring stations, including the Teesta at Dalia and Tarapur, the Kushiyara at Fenchuganj and Markuli, and the Someshwari at Kolmakanda, are currently at their respective warning levels.
