Play store
The winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled to be announced on Monday, with economists and observers speculating about researchers whose work has reshaped economic thinking and policymaking.
The prize, officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was established by Sweden’s central bank in 1968, rather than by Alfred Nobel’s original will.
The selection process considers the long-term impact of research on economics and society. Laureates are often older researchers whose contributions have stood the test of time, although some awards recognise technical advances that have transformed the way economists study real-world problems.
Prediction markets have offered some clues about potential winners, but limited trading activity has made the forecasts highly volatile.
According to NPR’s Planet Money, a Kalshi prediction market had recorded about $11,000 in trading volume as of October 6. The small volume raised questions about whether its rankings reflected broad expectations or the views of a handful of traders.
Among the researchers attracting attention were Harvard University economist Ariel Pakes, Stanford University economist Susan Athey and Harvard economist Robert Barro.
Pakes is known for his contributions to industrial organisation, which examines how market structures affect competition, prices and consumer choices. His work with Steven Berry and James Levinsohn produced a landmark 1995 model that helps economists analyse consumer preferences and assess the likely effects of corporate mergers.
The model has contributed to the development of tools used to evaluate how mergers and acquisitions could affect competition and consumer prices, making the research relevant to antitrust policy.
Athey, a leading scholar on the economics of technology, has contributed to economic theory, empirical research and econometrics. She has helped advance the use of machine learning in economics, particularly in analysing cause-and-effect relationships.
Such methods can help researchers evaluate whether policies and programmes, including job training initiatives, improve economic outcomes and identify which groups benefit most.
Barro, meanwhile, is known for his contributions to macroeconomics and the role of expectations in economic decision-making. His work on Ricardian equivalence examines whether government borrowing to finance tax cuts stimulates spending or encourages households to save in anticipation of future tax increases.
Other potential contenders include Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, whose research has transformed the study of income inequality; Raj Chetty, known for research on social mobility and economic opportunity; and David Autor, whose work examines how technology and international trade affect employment and wages.
Yale economist Janet Currie is another possible candidate, recognised for research into how childhood poverty, pollution and public policies influence health and economic prospects later in life.
However, prediction markets cannot reliably determine the winner, particularly when trading is limited. The official announcement will ultimately reveal which economist or economists the prize committee has selected.