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Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted Gulf oil producers to fast-track alternative export routes, with several pipeline projects being expanded, revived or newly announced to reduce reliance on the strategic waterway.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 14.95 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil were exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.
Iran accounted for approximately 1.69 mbd of those exports and is expected to continue relying on the strait due to its strategic control over the waterway, said Andrew Wilson of BRS Shipbrokers.
“Iran is just going to produce as much as it can, ship as much to China as it can. It’s not really such an issue,” Wilson told AFP.
Excluding Iran’s exports, industry experts estimate that up to 11.5 mbd of crude oil could eventually be redirected through alternative pipelines by maximizing existing capacity and completing planned infrastructure projects.
Saudi Arabia has emerged as the key player in reducing Hormuz dependence. Before the conflict that began in late February, the kingdom transported around 2 mbd of crude through its East-West Pipeline linking Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
State-owned Saudi Aramco said in March 2025 that the pipeline’s capacity had been increased to 7 mbd, leaving about 5 mbd of unused capacity. Riyadh is also planning a further expansion of up to 2 mbd, although it remains unclear whether this will involve upgrading the existing pipeline or building a parallel line. Industry experts estimate the project could be completed by 2030 or 2031.
The United Arab Emirates is also expanding its export network. Before the conflict, the country exported around 1.1 mbd through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which carries crude from inland oil fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA estimates the pipeline has a total capacity of 1.8 mbd, leaving 0.7 mbd of spare capacity.
In May, the UAE announced it was accelerating construction of a second pipeline that will run alongside the existing route before extending to the country’s northern coast. The project is expected to double export capacity through Fujairah and enter service next year.
Iraq is also seeking alternative export options. Earlier in July, the US State Department said plans were underway to restore a major pipeline connecting Iraqi oil fields to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
The project, backed by an international consortium under US oversight, is expected to have an initial capacity of 2 mbd. However, no completion timeline has been announced, and analysts caution that political and financial challenges could delay implementation.
Kuwait and Bahrain currently lack pipeline routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. However, both countries have recently discussed connecting their oil export systems to Saudi Arabia’s pipeline network, according to the US-based Institute for Energy Research (IER), as Gulf producers seek greater flexibility amid ongoing regional tensions.
