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England have been given a slight edge over defending champions Argentina in their FIFA World Cup semi-final, with Opta’s supercomputer predicting the Three Lions will progress to the final despite ranking them as only the tournament’s third favourites.
England reached the last four after Jude Bellingham scored twice in extra time to secure victory over Norway in the quarter-finals, setting up a blockbuster clash with Argentina, who defeated Switzerland 3-1.
According to Opta’s latest simulations, England have a 39.1 percent chance of beating Argentina in normal time, compared with 31.6 percent for the South Americans. Overall, the Three Lions have a 52.89 percent probability of reaching the final.
Despite being tipped to reach Sunday’s showpiece in New Jersey, England have a 22.62 percent chance of lifting the World Cup trophy, placing them behind France and Spain in the title race.
France are the favourites to win the tournament with a 33.58 percent chance and are predicted to defeat Spain in the first semi-final. Spain, although forecast to lose to France, are still rated slightly ahead of England with a 23.84 percent chance of becoming world champions.
England will face an Argentina side led by captain Lionel Messi, who has impressed throughout the tournament as the reigning champions bid to retain their title.
The semi-final has also attracted attention off the pitch after former FIFA referee Keith Hackett claimed Argentina striker Lautaro Martínez should have faced disciplinary action for celebrating with supporters after scoring against Switzerland while already on a yellow card. However, Martínez remains eligible to play in Wednesday’s match.
England manager Thomas Tuchel is expected to have nearly a full-strength squad available, with Jarell Quansah the only absentee as he serves a two-match suspension following his red card against Mexico.
The World Cup semi-final between England and Argentina is scheduled to kick off at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, with the winner advancing to Sunday’s final.