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Although Iraqis broadly support the eventual departure of US forces, some officials and community leaders say the country may not yet be ready to assume full responsibility for security.
“We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,” said Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah.
“All Iraqis aspire to full sovereignty, and no Iraqi would dispute that. But I believe that the (US-led coalition) leaving in this way and creating a vacuum is what all Iraqis fear,” he said.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and remained for years, fighting an insurgency before withdrawing at the end of 2011.
US forces returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces fight Islamic State, which seized large swathes of Iraq and Syria before losing its territorial stronghold in Iraq in 2017.
In recent years, Iraq has maintained close political and military ties with both Washington and Tehran, with its territory sometimes becoming a battleground between the two powers.
The United States killed senior Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike near Baghdad airport. Iran-backed groups subsequently launched repeated attacks on US bases, prompting American retaliatory strikes.
Iran welcomes US withdrawal
Iran, which has long called for the removal of US forces from West Asia, has portrayed the withdrawal as a victory for its network of allied armed groups.
“Lasting security will prevail in Iraq” once US forces leave the country and the region, Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, said on Monday.
Iran “welcomes the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and will undoubtedly support it,” he told Iran’s parliamentary news service.
Washington has accused Iran-backed Iraqi militias of contributing to the wider regional conflict by attacking neighbouring countries at Tehran’s direction. The Iraqi government says it is working to curb the influence of armed groups.
Iraqi security officials also fear the US withdrawal could give Islamic State an opportunity to rebuild its capabilities.
Although the group lost its territorial stronghold nearly a decade ago, it maintains sleeper cells capable of carrying out attacks. At its peak, Islamic State controlled about one-third of Iraq.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said the loss of US intelligence, logistical support and drone capabilities could give the militants an opportunity to regroup.
“For more than two weeks, we have noticed movement by (Islamic State) sleeper cells,” he said, adding that reports of the coalition withdrawal had boosted the militants’ morale.
Iraqi security forces also said a suspected Islamic State cell had been preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the US withdrawal.
Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the group was seeking to demonstrate that it remained capable of carrying out deadly attacks despite years of military setbacks.
