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Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline slightly in 2026, offering a sign that the shift towards clean energy is beginning to affect the world’s emissions trajectory, although total CO2 emissions will continue to rise.
According to the latest Global Carbon Budget published by the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions are expected to fall by 0.4 per cent to 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026.
The projected decline reflects the rapid expansion of solar and wind power, alongside a temporary reduction in oil consumption linked to disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran.
Oil-related emissions are forecast to drop by 1.9 per cent this year.
The report said solar power, wind energy and electric vehicles are now meeting around two-thirds of the growth in global energy demand, despite rising overall consumption.
However, researchers warned that the expansion of clean energy is not yet sufficient to ensure a sustained decline in fossil fuel emissions.
When emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are included, total global CO2 emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
The findings also highlight the shrinking global carbon budget — the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted while keeping global warming within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit above pre-industrial levels.
Researchers estimate that only 150 billion tonnes of CO2 remain in the budget, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.
The study also examined the performance of natural carbon sinks, particularly forests and oceans, which absorb a portion of the CO2 released by human activities.
Carbon absorption by land ecosystems has recovered to earlier levels after weakening during the 2023-24 El Niño weather phenomenon. However, scientists expect the powerful El Niño conditions forecast for 2026 to affect the capacity of natural systems to absorb carbon in the coming year.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the research, said a temporary decline in fossil fuel emissions was encouraging but warned that reductions driven partly by geopolitical disruptions could not provide a sustainable climate solution.
He stressed the need to accelerate the deployment of clean energy technologies to ensure global emissions peak and begin a lasting decline.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia said solar and wind power and electric vehicles were making a growing contribution to reducing global emissions, with China leading much of the expansion.
Meanwhile, Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research cautioned that a one-year decline did not necessarily mean global emissions had reached their peak.
He said structural changes, including faster deployment of solar power, wind energy, batteries and electric vehicles, were essential to secure a lasting reduction.
The research involved scientists from the universities of Exeter and East Anglia, the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and more than 90 other institutions worldwide.
Researchers also stressed that cutting emissions must be accompanied by greater efforts to remove carbon dioxide already accumulated in the atmosphere.