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As the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, Iran struck back near US military installations in the Gulf, including in Qatar and the UAE.
Several international airports were hit by Iranian strikes, including Dubai, the world’s busiest for international passengers, as well as Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain.
The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait closed their airspaces due to safety concerns, gradually reopening them a week later as hostilities lessened.
The war has had long-lasting consequences for regional aviation: falling passenger and cargo demand, fewer private jet flights, and global repercussions from high jet fuel prices.
The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) June outlook estimated that airlines operating from the Middle East will see a $7.2bn net profit in 2025 become a $4.3bn net loss in 2026.
Most major regional carriers have resumed operations, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, but not at full capacity.
Emirates CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times in June his planes were flying at three-quarters capacity.
Conversely, most European and Asian airlines’ flights in the region remain suspended. Air France expects to resume in late August and Lufthansa in September, while British Airways, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are all targeting late October.
Air Canada is not planning to resume before mid-January 2027, and many others have not announced a restart date at all.
Regional airspaces have reopened, but are still facing intermittent closures and disruptions.
The EU Aviation Safety Agency’s most recent bulletin advises operators to “avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and part of the Gulf of Oman until 31 August 2026”.
The result is limited choice for travellers. For a one-week round trip between the UAE and London in September, the only options are Emirates to Dubai, Etihad to Abu Dhabi, or Air Arabia to Sharjah, while to fly between Doha and Tokyo on those same dates, only Qatar Airways is available.
Business under threat
Gulf airlines organise their activity around a hub-and-spoke model concentrating traffic at a central base and operating flights worldwide from there. Passengers connect onward from the main hub, offering connections that are otherwise unavailable or sometimes cheaper fares than direct flights.
This model has long relied on the Gulf’s strategic position between Europe and Asia, forming what analysts describe as a “bridge” between the two continents. But the war has put this model at risk.
Naveed Kapadia, an aviation lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, told Middle East Eye that while competition for airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates is “greatly reduced”, allowing them to “capture market share and maintain stronger fares”, they remain “connecting carriers whose economics depend on moving large volumes of passengers efficiently through Dubai and Doha”.
Kapadia said IATA’s June data showed Middle Eastern passenger demand fell 13.9 percent year-on-year, while direct traffic between Europe and Asia rose 11 percent, already revealing a strain on the Gulf carrier’s model.
This leads to cost increases across the board. “Where flights must use longer or less efficient routings, airlines face higher fuel burn, longer crew duty periods and reduced aircraft utilisation,” Kapadia said.
The extra fuel many now carry in case of disruption also directly limits “passenger or cargo payload that can be carried”. Source MEE.