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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members of OPEC+ are expected to raise their oil production quotas for September when the group meets online on Sunday, as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global energy supplies.
The expanded Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is likely to increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), following several months of similar increases, according to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
However, the September increase is expected to mark the end of the current series of production adjustments.
Between late 2022 and 2023, OPEC+ became concerned over falling oil prices and agreed to cut production in three separate rounds, reducing total output by nearly six million bpd.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman and the United Arab Emirates later shifted strategy, gradually increasing production from 2025. The UAE exited the group on May 1.
A September increase would complete the unwinding of the second of the three production-cut packages introduced by OPEC+.
However, analysts say higher quotas may not necessarily translate into increased actual output, as several member countries are unable to produce at their official targets because of declining production capacity.
“Increasing targets has become less meaningful,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
Gulf producers have also struggled to raise exports amid the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz during the Middle East conflict.
Shipping traffic briefly increased after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, but disruptions have continued to affect energy flows.
Russia has faced additional challenges, with Ukrainian drone attacks repeatedly targeting its oil infrastructure. The country’s production is currently hovering around nine million bpd, below its target of 9.8 million bpd.
It remains unclear when OPEC+ members will be able to significantly increase actual production, although countries such as Iraq have expressed interest in substantially expanding output.
According to Staunovo, the group is currently working to establish maximum sustainable production capacity levels for all member states.
Analysts at DNB Carnegie said OPEC+ could face difficult negotiations over new production quotas beginning next year after the September increase.
“I don’t think cohesion is at risk at this very moment,” Leon said, while warning that the UAE’s withdrawal in May had exposed a potential weakness within the alliance.
Explaining its decision to leave, Abu Dhabi said the move “serves our national interests and long-term strategic objectives.”
The UAE has announced several projects and investments aimed at expanding its oil production capacity in recent years, making it increasingly difficult for the country to remain under strict OPEC+ production limits.
